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Key Insights: What Will Be Included in Spring Statement 2025?

15 Jan 2025

Overview of the Spring Statement

The Spring Statement 2025 will be delivered by the Chancellor on March 26th 2025.

The statement will provide certainty on upcoming tax and spending changes, supporting the government’s growth mission.

Does this mean we will have more than one major fiscal event?

The Chancellor remains committed to one major fiscal event a year, aiming to give families and businesses stability and certainty.

However, the Labour government has not ruled out the possibility of further tax rises and we may see a U-turn in respect of measures announced in the autumn budget that proved unpopular with the public.

Economic and Fiscal Forecast

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will publish an Economic and Fiscal Forecast on the same day as the Spring Statement.

The OBR produces two forecasts each financial year, as required by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011.

The forecast will provide an update on the UK’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Measures announced in the Autumn Budget seem to have already affected the economy. The expected increase in Employers National Insurance Contributions (NICs), combined with the planned increases to National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage and the proposals to enhance employment rights, has resulted in economic downturn and a fall in job vacancies.

Inflation is rising. Rises in the autumn were attributed to increased energy prices and with many retailers predicting price rises due to the Autumn Budget measures, inflation is expected to rise further.

If there is an economic slowdown that impacts public finances, the Chancellor may need to either cut public spending or increase taxes.

A British pound coin on top of a graph

Tax Changes and Reforms

The Finance Bill, now at committee stage in the House of Commons, outlines the key tax measures set to shape the year ahead. However, the Labour Government has not ruled out the possibility of further tax rises.

The Spring Statement may include adjustments to some of the more contentious Autumn Budget tax measures.

Most employers face the prospect of higher Employers NICs bills from April 6th. The Chancellor may use the statement to scrap, shelve, or soften the £25 billion Employers National Insurance raid, perhaps by increasing the employment allowance or the secondary threshold (the point at which employers start to pay NIC on their employees' salaries).

The Chancellor may announce an additional NIC relief for the charity sector, which would otherwise be profoundly affected when the Employers NIC increase takes effect.

The statement may also include reforms to the umbrella company sector.

Following the Autumn Statement, farmers protested against the proposals to limit the amount of Inheritance Tax Reliefs available, meaning more farmers will pay inheritance tax. The Government could announce easements in this area, possibly by increasing the planned £1 million combined limit for business property relief and agricultural property relief.

In the Autumn Budget, it was announced that the rate of capital gains tax applicable to gains qualifying for Business Asset Disposal Relief will rise from 10% to 14% from 6 April 2025, with a further rise to 18% from 6 April 2026. The Chancellor may use the Spring Statement to review this measure.

The Autumn Budget confirmed that the temporary increase to stamp duty land tax thresholds ends on 31 March 2025. However, in view of the government's growth mission and housebuilding plans perhaps this will be rethought in the Spring Statement.

Even if the Chancellor does not announce any changes to tax rates and thresholds, it is important to bear in mind the concept of 'fiscal drag', whereby freezing thresholds at their current levels drags more taxpayers into paying higher rates of tax as their incomes rise.

In the Autumn Budget, the government announced plans to transform HMRC into a digital‑first organisation, with a Digital Transformation Roadmap to be published in spring 2025. The Spring Statement may therefore include information on Making Tax Digital for Income Tax and give us timescales for the implementation of other digitalisation initiatives.

HMRC opened letter

Contractor Implications

The Spring Statement may bring some tax changes, particularly for the UK contractor and umbrella sectors. In the Autumn Budget, the Government announced that it would introduce legislation to change who has responsibility to account for Pay As You Earn (PAYE) taxes where an umbrella company is used in a labour supply chain to engage a worker. The responsibility for accounting for PAYE will be moved from the umbrella company that employs the worker to the recruitment agency that supplies the worker to the end client. This change is expected to take effect from 6 April 2026 and we may see the detailed changes announced in the Spring Statement.

Discover our Branded Spring Statement PDF

Fiscal Framework and Public Services

The Chancellor may use the Spring Statement to adjust the fiscal framework, including the stability rule and the investment rule.

The statement may include reforms to public services, such as the NHS and education.

In the Autumn Budget, the Chancellor set out the outcome of Phase 1 of the Spending Review, which confirmed departmental budgets for 2024-25 and set budgets for 2025-26. Phase 2 will be published in late spring of 2025. As part of Phase 2, departments will be expected to make better use of technology and seek to reform public services.

The government may announce plans to increase investment in public services and infrastructure.

Key Takeaways

The Spring Statement 2025 will provide certainty on upcoming tax and spending changes.

The Chancellor remains committed to one major fiscal event a year.

The statement may include adjustments to tax measures and reforms to the umbrella company sector.

Businesses may need to adjust to changes in tax rates, including income tax, capital gains tax, and inheritance tax.

The words key takeaways written down on paper

Future Outlook and the Government's Growth Mission

The Spring Statement 2025 will set the tone for the government’s economic and fiscal policy for the coming year.

The statement may include plans for future tax changes and reforms.

The statement may also include updates on the UK’s economic and fiscal outlook as well as on the government's growth mission.

Find out more about our Spring Statement PDF